The territory of the southern smokers. The problem of the Kuril Islands in relations between Russia and Japan

To the root of the problem

One of the first documents regulating Russian-Japanese relations was the Shimoda Treaty, signed on January 26, 1855. According to the second article of the treatise, the border was established between the islands of Urup and Iturup - that is, all four islands now claimed by Japan today were recognized as the possession of Japan.

Since 1981, the date of the signing of the Shimoda Treaty has been celebrated in Japan as "Northern Territories Day". Another thing is that, relying on the Shimoda treatise as one of the fundamental documents, in Japan they forget about one important point. In 1904, Japan, having attacked the Russian squadron in Port Arthur and unleashed the Russo-Japanese War, itself violated the terms of the treaty, which provided for friendship and good neighborly relations between states.

The Shimoda treaty did not determine the ownership of Sakhalin, where both Russian and Japanese settlements were located, and by the mid-70s a solution to this issue was also ripe. The St. Petersburg Treaty was signed, which was ambiguously assessed by both parties. Under the terms of the treaty, all the Kuril Islands were now completely withdrawn to Japan, and Russia received full control over Sakhalin.

Then, following the results of the Russo-Japanese War, according to the Treaty of Portsmouth, Japan ceded the southern part of Sakhalin up to the 50th parallel.

In 1925, the Soviet-Japanese Convention was signed in Beijing, generally confirming the terms of the Portsmouth Treaty. As is known, the late 1930s and early 1940s were extremely tense in Soviet-Japanese relations and were associated with a series of military conflicts of various scales.

The situation began to change by 1945, when the Axis began to suffer heavy defeats and the prospect of losing the Second World War became more and more obvious. Against this background, the question arose about the post-war structure of the world. So, according to the terms of the Yalta Conference, the USSR was obliged to enter the war against Japan, and South Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands went to the Soviet Union.

True, at the same time, the Japanese leadership was ready to voluntarily cede these territories in exchange for the neutrality of the USSR and the supply of Soviet oil. The USSR did not take such a very slippery step. The defeat of Japan by that time was a matter of maybe not a quick, but still time. And most importantly, by refraining from decisive action, the Soviet Union would actually hand the situation in the Far East into the hands of the United States and its allies.

By the way, this also applies to the events of the Soviet-Japanese War and the Kuril landing operation itself, which was not originally prepared. When it became known about the preparations for the landing of American troops on the Kuriles, the Kuril landing operation was urgently prepared in a day. Fierce fighting in August 1945 ended with the surrender of the Japanese garrisons in the Kuriles.

Fortunately, the Japanese command did not know the real number of Soviet paratroopers and, without fully using their overwhelming numerical superiority, capitulated. At the same time, the South Sakhalin offensive operation was also carried out. So, at the cost of considerable losses, South Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands became part of the USSR.

The Southern Kuril Islands are a stumbling block in relations between Russia and Japan. The dispute over the ownership of the islands prevents our neighboring countries from concluding a peace treaty, which was violated during the Second World War, negatively affects the economic ties between Russia and Japan, contributes to an ever-preserving state of distrust, even hostility, of the Russian and Japanese peoples

Kurile Islands

Disputed islands - Kunashir, Shikotan, Iturup, Habomai

Kunashir Island

Habomai

The history of the discovery of the Kuril Islands

- In October-November 1648, he was the first of the Russians to pass the First Kuril Strait, that is, the strait separating the northernmost island of the Kuril ridge Shumshu from the southern tip of Kamchatka, under the command of the clerk of the Moscow merchant Usov Fedot Alekseevich Popov. It is possible that Popov's people even landed on Shumshu.
- The first Europeans to visit the Kuril Islands were the Dutch. On February 3, 1643, the two ships Castricum and Breskens, which left Batavia in the direction of Japan, under the general command of Martin de Vries, approached the Lesser Kuril Ridge on June 13. The Dutch saw the shores of Iturup, Shikotan, discovered the strait between the islands of Iturup and Kunashir.
- In 1711, the Cossacks Antsiferov and Kozyrevsky visited the Northern Kuril Islands Shumsha and Paramushir and even unsuccessfully tried to extort tribute from the local population - the Ainu.
- In 1721, by decree of Peter the Great, an expedition of Evreeinov and Luzhin was sent to the Kuriles, who explored and mapped 14 islands in the central part of the Kuril ridge.
- In the summer of 1739, a Russian ship under the command of M. Spanberg rounded the islands of the South Kuril ridge. Spanberg mapped, although inaccurately, the entire ridge of the Kuril Islands from the Kamchatka nose to Hokkaido.

Ainu lived on the Kuril Islands. The Ainu, the first population of the Japanese islands, were gradually forced out by newcomers from Central Asia to the north to the island of Hokkaido and further to the Kuriles. From October 1946 to May 1948, tens of thousands of Ainu and Japanese were taken from the Kuril Islands and Sakhalin to the island of Hokkaido

The problem of the Kuril Islands. Briefly

- 1855, February 7 (new style) - the first diplomatic document in relations between Russia and Japan, the so-called Treaty of Simond, was signed in the Japanese port of Shimoda. On behalf of Russia, it was endorsed by Vice-Admiral E. V. Putyatin, on behalf of Japan - authorized Toshiakira Kawaji.

Article 2: “From now on, the borders between Russia and Japan will pass between the islands of Iturup and Urup. The whole island of Iturup belongs to Japan, and the whole island of Urup and the other Kuril Islands to the north are the possession of Russia. As for the island of Crafto (Sakhalin), it remains undivided between Russia and Japan, as it has been until now.

- 1875, May 7 - a new Russian-Japanese treaty "On the exchange of territories" was concluded in St. Petersburg. On behalf of Russia, it was signed by Minister of Foreign Affairs A. Gorchakov, and on behalf of Japan, by Admiral Enomoto Takeaki.

Article 1. “His Majesty the Emperor of Japan ... cedes to His Majesty the All-Russian Emperor part of the territory of the island of Sakhalin (Krafto), which he now owns .. so that from now on the aforementioned Sakhalin Island (Krafto) will completely belong to the Russian Empire and the border line between the Empires of Russia and The Japanese will pass in these waters through the La Perouse Strait "

Article 2. “In return for the cession of rights to Sakhalin Island to Russia, His Majesty the All-Russian Emperor cedes to His Majesty the Emperor of Japan a group of islands called the Kuril Islands. ... This group includes ... eighteen islands 1) Shumshu 2) Alaid 3) Paramushir 4) Makanrushi 5) Onekotan, 6) Harimkotan, 7) Ekarma, 8) Shiashkotan, 9) Mus-sir, 10) Raikoke, 11) Matua , 12) Rastua, 13) the islets of Sredneva and Ushisir, 14) Ketoi, 15) Simusir, 16) Broughton, 17) the islets of Cherpoy and Brother Cherpoev, and 18) Urup, so that the border line between the Russian and Japanese Empires in these waters will pass through the strait located between Cape Lopatkoy of the Kamchatka Peninsula and Shumshu Island"

- May 28, 1895 - An agreement between Russia and Japan on trade and navigation was signed in St. Petersburg. On behalf of Russia, it was signed by Minister of Foreign Affairs A. Lobanov-Rostovsky and Minister of Finance S. Witte; on behalf of Japan, it was signed by Nishi Tokujiro, Plenipotentiary Envoy to the Russian Court. The treaty consisted of 20 articles.

Article 18 stated that the treaty supersedes all previous Russo-Japanese treaties, agreements and conventions

- 1905, September 5 - Portsmouth Peace Treaty was concluded in Portsmouth (USA), which completed. On behalf of Russia, it was signed by Chairman of the Committee of Ministers S. Witte and Ambassador to the United States R. Rosen, on behalf of Japan by Foreign Minister D. Komura and envoy to the United States K. Takahira.

Article IX: “The Russian Imperial Government cedes to the Imperial Japanese Government in perpetual and complete possession the southern part of the island of Sakhalin and all the islands adjacent to the latter .... The fiftieth parallel of northern latitude is taken as the limit of the ceded territory.

- 1907, July 30 - An agreement between Japan and Russia was signed in St. Petersburg, consisting of a public convention and a secret treaty. The convention stated that the parties were obliged to respect the territorial integrity of both countries and all the rights arising from the agreements existing between them. The agreement was signed by Minister of Foreign Affairs A. Izvolsky and Ambassador of Japan to Russia I. Motono
- 1916, July 3 - in Petrograd Petrograd established the Russo-Japanese alliance. It consisted of a vowel and a secret part. In the secret one, the previous Russian-Japanese agreements were also confirmed. The documents were signed by Minister of Foreign Affairs S. Sazonov and I. Motono
- 1925, January 20 - the Soviet-Japanese Convention on the Basic Principles of Relations, ... the declaration of the Soviet government ... was signed in Beijing. The documents were endorsed by L. Karahan from the USSR and K. Yoshizawa from Japan

convention.
Article II: “The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics agrees that the treaty concluded at Portsmouth on 5 September 1905 shall remain in full force and effect. It is agreed that the treaties, conventions and agreements, other than the said Treaty of Portsmouth, concluded between Japan and Russia before November 7, 1917, will be revised at a conference to be held subsequently between the Governments of the Contracting Parties, and that they may be amended or canceled as necessary. changing circumstances require."
The declaration emphasized that the government of the USSR does not share political responsibility with the former tsarist government for the conclusion of the Portsmouth Peace Treaty: “The Plenipotentiary of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics has the honor to declare that the recognition by his Government of the validity of the Treaty of Portsmouth of September 5, 1905 in no way means that The government of the Union shares with the former tsarist government the political responsibility for the conclusion of the said treaty.

- 1941, April 13 - Neutrality Pact between Japan and the USSR. The pact was signed by Foreign Ministers Molotov and Yosuke Matsuoka
Article 2 "In the event that one of the contracting parties becomes the object of hostilities by one or more third powers, the other contracting party shall remain neutral throughout the entire conflict."
- 1945, February 11 - at the Yalta Conference of Stalin Roosevelt and Churchill, an agreement was signed on the Far East.

"2. The return of the rights that belonged to Russia, violated by the perfidious attack of Japan in 1904, namely:
a) the return to the Soviet Union of the southern part of about. Sakhalin and all adjacent islands, ...
3. Transfers of the Kuril Islands to the Soviet Union"

- 1945, April 5 - Molotov received the Japanese ambassador to the USSR, Naotake Sato, and made a statement to him that in the conditions when Japan was at war with England and the USA, the allies of the USSR, the pact loses its meaning and its extension becomes impossible
- August 9, 1945 - The USSR declared war on Japan.
- 1946, January 29 - Memorandum of the Commander-in-Chief of the Allied Forces in the Far East, American General D. MacArthur, to the Government of Japan determined that the southern part of Sakhalin and all the Kuril Islands, including the Lesser Kuril Ridge (the Habomai group of islands and Shikotan Island), are withdrawn from the sovereignty of the Japanese state
- 1946, February 2 - By the decree of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR, in accordance with the provisions of the Yalta Agreement and the Potsdam Declaration, the South Sakhalin (now Sakhalin) Region of the RSFSR was created in the returned Russian territories

The return to the Russian territory of South Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands made it possible to ensure access to the Pacific Ocean of the ships of the Navy of the USSR, to find a new line of advanced deployment of the Far Eastern group of ground forces and military aviation of the Soviet Union, and now the Russian Federation, which was carried far beyond the continent

- 1951, September 8 - Japan signed the San Francisco Peace Treaty, according to which it renounced "all rights ... to the Kuril Islands and to that part of Sakhalin ..., sovereignty over which it acquired under the Portsmouth Treaty of September 5, 1905." The USSR refused to sign this treaty, because, according to Minister Gromyko, the text of the treaty did not enshrine the sovereignty of the USSR over South Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands.

The San Francisco Peace Treaty between the countries of the anti-Hitler coalition and Japan officially ended World War II, fixed the procedure for paying reparations to allies and compensation to countries affected by Japanese aggression

- 1956, August 19 - in Moscow, the USSR and Japan signed a declaration ending the state of war between them. According to it (including) the island of Shikotan and the Habomai ridge were to be transferred to Japan after the signing of a peace treaty between the USSR and Japan. However, soon Japan, under pressure from the United States, refused to sign a peace treaty, since the United States threatened that if Japan withdraws its claims to the Kunashir and Iturup islands, the Ryukyu archipelago with the island of Okinawa would not be returned to Japan, which, on the basis of Article 3 of the San Francisco Peace the treaty was then administered by the United States

“President of Russia V.V. Putin has repeatedly confirmed that Russia, as a successor state of the USSR, is committed to this document…. It is clear that if it comes to the implementation of the 1956 Declaration, a lot of details will have to be agreed upon ... However, the sequence set out in this Declaration remains unchanged ... the first step before everything else is the signing and entry into force of a peace treaty "(Russian Foreign Minister S . Lavrov)

- 1960, January 19 - Japan and the United States signed the "Treaty of Interaction and Security"
- January 27, 1960 - The government of the USSR stated that since this agreement was directed against the USSR, it refuses to consider the transfer of the islands to Japan, since this will lead to the expansion of the territory used by American troops
- 2011, November - Lavrov: "The Kuriles were, are and will be our territory in accordance with the decisions that were made following the results of the Second World War"

Iturup, the largest of the South Kuril Islands, became ours 70 years ago. Under the Japanese, tens of thousands of people lived here, life was in full swing in the villages and markets, there was a large military base from where the Japanese squadron left to smash Pearl Harbor. What have we built here over the past years? Recently, here is the airport. A couple of shops and hotels also appeared. And in the main settlement - the city of Kurilsk with a population of just over one and a half thousand people - they laid an outlandish attraction: a couple of hundred meters (!) Of asphalt. But in the store, the seller warns the buyer: “The product is almost expired. Do you take it? And he hears in response: “Yes, I know. Of course I will." And how not to take it if there is not enough food (with the exception of fish and what the garden gives), and there will be no delivery in the coming days, more precisely, it is not known when it will be. Local people like to repeat: we have 3,000 people and 8,000 bears here. There are more people, of course, if you count the military and border guards, but no one counted the bears - maybe there are more of them. From the south to the north of the island, you have to get along a harsh dirt road through the pass, where hungry foxes guard each car, and roadside burdocks are the size of a person, you can hide with them. Beauty, of course: volcanoes, hollows, springs. But it is safe to ride on the local dirt trails only during the day and when
there is no fog. And in rare settlements, the streets are empty after nine in the evening - a curfew in fact. A simple question - why did the Japanese live well here, while we only get settlements? - most of the inhabitants simply do not occur. We live - we guard the earth.(“Rotational sovereignty”. “Spark” No. 25 (5423), June 27, 2016)

Once a prominent Soviet figure was asked: “Why don't you give Japan these islands. She has such a small territory, and you have such a large one? “That’s why it’s big because we don’t give it back,” the activist answered.

The dispute between Russia and Japan over this has been going on for decades. Due to the unresolved issue between the two countries, there is still no

Why are the negotiations so difficult and is there a chance to find an acceptable solution that would suit both parties, the iz.ru portal found out.

Political maneuver

“We have been negotiating for seventy years. Shinzo said, "Let's change our minds." Let's. So that's the idea that came to my mind: let's conclude a peace treaty - not now, but before the end of the year - without any preconditions.

This remark by Vladimir Putin at the Vladivostok Economic Forum caused a stir in the media. Japan's response, however, was predictable: Tokyo was not ready to make peace without resolving the territorial issue due to a host of circumstances. Any politician who fixes in an international treaty even a hint of renunciation of claims to the so-called northern territories runs the risk of losing the election and ending his political career.

For decades, Japanese journalists, politicians and scientists have been explaining to the nation that the issue of returning the South Kuriles to the Land of the Rising Sun is fundamental, and in the end they explained it.

Now, with any political maneuver on the Russian front, the Japanese elites must take into account the notorious territorial problem.

Why Japan wants to get the four southern islands of the Kuril chain is understandable. But why does Russia not want to give them away?

From merchants to military bases

The big world did not suspect the existence of the Kuril Islands until about the middle of the 17th century. The Ainu people who lived on them once inhabited all the Japanese islands, but under the pressure of the invaders who arrived from the mainland - the ancestors of the future Japanese - were gradually destroyed or driven north - to Hokkaido, the Kuriles and Sakhalin.

In 1635-1637, a Japanese expedition explored the southernmost islands of the Kuril chain, in 1643 the Dutch explorer Martin de Vries explored Iturup and Urup and declared the latter the property of the Dutch East India Company. Five years later, the northern islands were discovered by Russian merchants. In the 18th century, the Russian government took up the exploration of the Kuriles in earnest.

Russian expeditions reached the very south, mapped Shikotan and Habomai, and soon Catherine II issued a decree that all the Kuriles up to Japan itself were Russian territory. The European powers took note of this. The opinion of the Japanese at that time did not bother anyone except themselves.

Three islands - the so-called Southern group: Urup, Iturup and Kunashir - as well as the Lesser Kuril Ridge - Shikotan and numerous uninhabited islands next to it, which the Japanese call Habomai - ended up in a gray zone.

The Russians did not build fortifications or station garrisons there, and the Japanese were mainly occupied with the colonization of Hokkaido. Only on February 7, 1855, the first border treaty, the Shimoda Treaty, was signed between Russia and Japan.

According to its terms, the border between Japanese and Russian possessions passed through the Frieze Strait - ironically named after the very Dutch navigator who tried to declare the islands Dutch. Iturup, Kunashir, Shikotan and Habomai went to Japan, Urup and the islands further north to Russia.

In 1875, the entire ridge to Kamchatka itself was transferred to the Japanese in exchange for the southern part of Sakhalin; 30 years later, Japan regained it as a result of the Russo-Japanese War, which Russia lost.

During World War II, Japan was one of the Axis states, but hostilities between the Soviet Union and the Empire of Japan did not take place during most of the conflict, since the parties signed a non-aggression pact in 1941.

However, on April 6, 1945, the USSR, fulfilling its allied obligations, warned Japan about the denunciation of the pact, and in August declared war on it. Soviet troops occupied all the Kuril Islands, on whose territory the Yuzhno-Sakhalin region was created.

But in the end, things did not come to a peace treaty between Japan and the USSR. The Cold War began, relations between the former allies heated up. Japan, occupied by American troops, automatically ended up on the side of the Western bloc in the new conflict.

Under the terms of the San Francisco Peace Treaty of 1951, which the Union refused to sign for a number of reasons, Japan confirmed the return of all the Kuriles to the USSR - except for Iturup, Shikotan, Kunashir and Khabomai.

Five years later, there seemed to be the prospect of a lasting peace: the USSR and Japan adopted the Moscow Declaration, which ended the state of war. The Soviet leadership then expressed its readiness to give Japan Shikotan and Habomai, on the condition that it withdraw its claims to Iturup and Kunashir.

But in the end, everything fell apart. The United States threatened Japan that if they signed an agreement with the Soviet Union, they would not return the Ryukyu archipelago to it. In 1960, Tokyo and Washington entered into an agreement on mutual cooperation and security guarantees, which contained a provision that the United States had the right to station troops of any size in Japan and establish military bases, and after that Moscow categorically abandoned the idea of ​​​​a peace treaty.

If earlier the USSR had the illusion that by concession to Japan it was possible to normalize relations with it, transferring it to the category of at least relatively neutral countries, now the transfer of the islands meant that American military bases would soon appear on them.

As a result, the peace treaty was never concluded - and has not yet been concluded.

Dashing 1990s

Soviet leaders up to Gorbachev did not recognize the existence of a territorial problem in principle. In 1993, already under Yeltsin, the Tokyo Declaration was signed, in which Moscow and Tokyo indicated their intention to resolve the issue of ownership of the South Kuriles. In Russia, this was perceived with considerable concern, in Japan, on the contrary, with enthusiasm.

The northern neighbor was going through hard times, and the most insane projects can be found in the Japanese press of that time - up to the purchase of the islands for a large sum, since the then Russian leadership was ready to make endless concessions to Western partners.

But in the end, both Russian fears and Japanese hopes turned out to be groundless: within a few years, Russia's foreign policy course was adjusted in favor of greater realism, and there was no longer any talk of transferring the Kuriles.

In 2004, the question suddenly surfaced again. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that Moscow, as a state - the successor of the USSR, is ready to resume negotiations on the basis of the Moscow Declaration - that is, to sign a peace treaty and then, as a gesture of goodwill, give Shikotan and Habomai to Japan.

The Japanese did not compromise, and already in 2014, Russia completely returned to Soviet rhetoric, declaring that it had no territorial dispute with Japan.

Moscow's position is completely transparent, understandable and explainable. This is the position of the strong: it is not Russia that is demanding something from Japan - quite the opposite, the Japanese are making claims that they cannot back up either militarily or politically. Accordingly, on the part of Russia, we can only talk about a gesture of good will - and nothing more.

Economic relations with Japan are developing as usual, the islands do not affect them in any way, and the transfer of the islands will not speed them up or slow them down.

At the same time, the transfer of islands may entail a number of consequences, and their magnitude depends on which islands will be transferred.

The sea is closed, the sea is open

“This is a success that Russia has been striving for for many years... In terms of reserves, these territories are a real Ali Baba's cave, access to which opens up huge opportunities and prospects for the Russian economy...

The inclusion of the enclave in the Russian shelf establishes the exclusive rights of Russia to the resources of the subsoil and the seabed of the enclave, including fishing for sessile species, that is, crabs, mollusks, and so on, and also extends Russian jurisdiction over the territory of the enclave in terms of requirements for fishing, safety, environmental protection ".

So the Minister of Natural Resources and Ecology of Russia Sergey Donskoy in 2013 commented on the news that the UN subcommittee had decided to recognize the Sea of ​​Okhotsk as an inland sea of ​​Russia.

Until that moment, in the very center of the Sea of ​​Okhotsk, there was an enclave stretching from north to south with an area of ​​​​52 thousand square meters. km, for its characteristic shape called the "Peanut Hole" (Peanut Hole).

The fact is that the 200-mile special economic zone of Russia did not reach the very center of the sea - thus, the waters there were considered international and ships of any states could fish in them and mine minerals. After the UN subcommission approved the Russian application, the sea became completely Russian.

This story had many heroes: scientists who proved that the seabed in the Peanut Hole area is the continental shelf, diplomats who managed to defend Russian claims, and others.

What will happen to the status of the Sea of ​​Okhotsk if Russia gives Japan two islands - Shikotan and Habomai? Absolutely nothing. None of them is washed by its waters, therefore, no changes are expected. But if Moscow also gives up Kunashir and Iturup to Tokyo, the situation will not be so clear-cut.

The distance between Kunashir and Sakhalin is less than 400 nautical miles, that is, the special economic zone of Russia completely covers the south of the Sea of ​​Okhotsk. But there are already 500 nautical miles from Sakhalin to Urup: a corridor leading to the Peanut Hole is being formed between the two parts of the economic zone.

It is difficult to predict what consequences this will entail.

At the border, the seiner walks gloomily

A similar situation is developing in the military sphere. Kunashir is separated from Japanese Hokkaido by the Straits of Treason and Kunashir; between Kunashir and Iturup lies the Catherine Strait, between Iturup and Urup - the Friza Strait.

Now the straits of Ekaterina and Friza are under full Russian control, Treason and Kunashirsky are under surveillance. Not a single enemy submarine or ship will be able to enter the Sea of ​​Okhotsk through the islands of the Kuril chain unnoticed, while Russian submarines and ships can safely exit through the deep-water straits of Ekaterina and Friz.

In the event that Japan transfers the two islands to Russian ships, it will be more difficult to use the Catherine Strait; in the event of the transfer of four, Russia will completely lose control over the straits of Treason, Kunashirsky and Ekaterina and will only be able to monitor the Friza strait. Thus, a hole is formed in the system of protection of the Sea of ​​Okhotsk, which cannot be repaired.

The economy of the Kuril Islands is tied primarily to the extraction and processing of fish. There is no economy on Habomai due to the lack of population, on Shikotan, where about 3 thousand people live, there is a fish cannery.

Of course, in the event of the transfer of these islands to Japan, it will be necessary to decide the fate of the people living on them and the enterprises, and this decision will not be easy.

But if Russia gives up Iturup and Kunashir, the consequences will be much greater. Now about 15 thousand people live on these islands, infrastructure is being actively built, in 2014 an international airport was launched on Iturup. But most importantly - Iturup is rich in minerals.

There, in particular, is the only economically profitable deposit of rhenium - one of the rarest metals. Before the collapse of the USSR, Russian industry received it from the Kazakh Dzhezkazgan, and the deposit on the Kudryavy volcano is a chance to completely end dependence on rhenium imports.

Thus, if Russia gives Japan Habomai and Shikotan, it will lose part of its territory and suffer relatively small economic losses; if, in addition, it gives up Iturup and Kunashir, it will suffer much more both economically and strategically. But in any case, you can give only when the other side has something to offer in return. Tokyo has nothing to offer yet.

Russia wants peace - but with a strong, peaceful and friendly Japan pursuing an independent foreign policy.

In the current conditions, when experts and politicians are talking louder and louder about a new cold war, the ruthless logic of confrontation comes into play again: giving Japan, which supports anti-Russian sanctions and retains American bases on its territory, Habomai and Shikotan, not to mention Kunashir and Iturup, Russia risks simply losing the islands without getting anything in return. It is unlikely that Moscow is ready to go for it.

Alexey Lyusin

The conflict over the Kuril Islands began long before World War II.

The dispute over the southernmost Kuril Islands - Iturup, Kunashir, Shikotan and Khabomai - has been a point of tension between Japan and Russia since they were taken over by the Soviet Union in 1945. More than 70 years later, Russian-Japanese relations are still not normal due to the ongoing territorial dispute. To a large extent, it was historical factors that prevented the solution of this issue. These include demographics, mentality, institutions, geography, and economics, all of which encourage tough policies rather than willingness to compromise. The first four factors contribute to the persistence of the stalemate, while the economy in the form of oil policy is associated with some hope of a resolution.

Russia's claims to the Kuriles date back to the 17th century, which occurred as a result of periodic contacts with Japan through Hokkaido. In 1821, the border was de facto established, according to which Iturup became Japanese territory, and Russian land began from Urup Island. Subsequently, according to the Shimodsky Treaty (1855) and the St. Petersburg Treaty (1875), all four islands were recognized as the territory of Japan. The last time the Kuriles changed their owner as a result of the Second World War - in 1945 in Yalta, the allies, in fact, agreed to transfer these islands to Russia.

The dispute over the islands became part of Cold War politics during the negotiations for the San Francisco Peace Treaty, Article 2c of which forced Japan to renounce all of its claims to the Kuril Islands. However, the refusal of the Soviet Union to sign this agreement left these islands in a state of limbo. In 1956, a joint Soviet-Japanese declaration was signed, which de facto meant the end of the state of war, but failed to resolve the territorial conflict. After the 1960 ratification of the US-Japanese Security Treaty, further negotiations were terminated, and this continued until the 1990s.

However, after the end of the Cold War in 1991, there seemed to be a new opportunity to resolve this issue. Despite the tumultuous events in world affairs, the positions of Japan and Russia on the Kuriles have not changed much since 1956, and the reason for this situation was five historical factors that were outside the Cold War.

The first factor is demographic. Japan's population is already declining due to low birth rates and aging, while Russia's population has been declining since 1992 due to excessive drinking and other social ills. This shift, together with the decline in international influence, has led to the emergence of retrospective tendencies, and both nations are now basically trying to resolve this issue by looking backwards rather than forwards. Given such attitudes, one can conclude that the aging populations of Japan and Russia are depriving Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and President Vladimir Putin of the opportunity to negotiate because of firmly entrenched views on the issue of the Kuriles.

Context

Is Russia ready to return two islands?

Military construction in the Kuriles

Is it possible to agree on the Kuril Islands?

The perception of Japan in Russia was largely shaped by the issue of the Kuril Islands, and this continued until the end of the Cold War. Anti-Japanese propaganda became common after the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905, and it was reinforced by Japanese intervention during the Russian Civil War (1918-1922). This led many Russians to believe that as a result, all previously concluded treaties were annulled. However, Russia's victory over Japan in World War II ended the previous humiliation and reinforced the symbolic meaning of the Kuril Islands, which came to represent (1) the irreversibility of the results of World War II and (2) Russia's status as a great power. From this point of view, the transfer of territory is seen as a revision of the outcome of the war. Therefore, control over the Kuriles retains an important psychological significance for the Russians.

Japan is trying to define its place in the world as a "normal" state, located next to an increasingly powerful China. The question of the return of the Kuril Islands is directly linked to the national identity of Japan, and these territories themselves are perceived as the last symbol of defeat in World War II. The Russian offensive and the capture of Japan's "inalienable territory" helped reinforce the victim mentality that became the prevailing narrative after the end of the war.

This attitude is reinforced by the Japanese conservative media, which often supports the government's foreign policy. In addition, nationalists often use the media to viciously attack academics and politicians who hint at a compromise on the issue, leaving little room for manoeuvre.

This, in turn, has an impact on the political institutions of both Japan and Russia. In the 1990s, President Boris Yeltsin's position was so weak that he feared possible impeachment if the Kuril Islands were handed over to Japan. At the same time, the central Russian government was weakened as a result of the growing influence of regional politicians, including the two governors of the Sakhalin region - Valentin Fedorov (1990 - 1993) and Igor Fakhrutdinov (1995 - 2003), who actively opposed the possible sale of the Kuriles to Japan. They relied on nationalist sentiments, and this was enough to prevent the completion of the treaty and its implementation in the 1990s.

Since President Putin came to power, Moscow has brought regional governments under its influence, but other institutional factors have also contributed to the stalemate. One example is the idea that the situation should mature, and then some issue or problem can be solved. During the initial period of his rule, President Putin was able, but not willing, to negotiate with Japan over the Kuriles. Instead, he decided to devote his time and energy to resolving the Sino-Russian border conflict through the issue of the Kuril Islands.

Since returning to the presidency in 2013, Putin has become increasingly dependent on the support of nationalist forces, and it is unlikely that he will be ready to cede the Kuriles in any meaningful way. Recent events in Crimea and Ukraine clearly demonstrate how far Putin is willing to go to defend Russia's national status.

Japanese political institutions, while different from Russia's, also support a hard line of negotiation over the Kuriles. As a result of the reforms carried out after the end of World War II, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) dominates Japan. With the exception of the period from 1993 to 1995 and from 2009 to 2012, the LDP had and continues to have a majority in the national legislative assembly, and in fact its party platform for the return of the four southern islands of the Kuril chain since 1956 has been an integral part of national politics.

In addition, as a result of the real estate crash of 1990-1991, the Liberal Democratic Party nominated only two effective prime ministers, Koizumi Junichiro and Shinzo Abe, both of whom rely on the support of nationalists to maintain their positions. Finally, regional politics in Japan plays an important role, and elected politicians in Hokkaido are pushing the central government to take a assertive stance in this dispute. Taken together, all these factors do not contribute to a compromise that would include the return of all four islands.

Sakhalin and Hokkaido emphasize the importance of geography and regional interests in this dispute. Geography influences how people see the world and how they observe policy making and implementation. The most important Russian interests are in Europe, followed by the Middle East and Central Asia, and only after that Japan. As one example, Russia devotes much of its time and effort to the issue of NATO expansion to the east, to eastern Europe, as well as to the negative consequences associated with the events in Crimea and Ukraine. As far as Japan is concerned, the alliance with the United States, China, and the Korean Peninsula take precedence over relations with Moscow. The Japanese government must also consider public pressure to resolve issues with North Korea over kidnapping and nuclear weapons, which Abe has promised to do on several occasions. As a result, the issue of the Kuriles is often relegated to the background.

Probably the only factor contributing to a possible resolution of the Kuril issue is economic interests. After 1991, both Japan and Russia entered a period of prolonged economic crisis. The Russian economy reached its lowest point during the crisis of its national currency in 1997, and is currently facing serious difficulties due to the collapse in oil prices and economic sanctions. However, the development of oil and gas fields in Siberia, in the process of which Japanese capital and Russian natural resources are combined, contributes to cooperation and a possible resolution of the issue of the Kuriles. Despite the sanctions imposed, 8% of Japan's oil consumption in 2014 was imported from Russia, and the increase in oil and natural gas consumption is largely due to the consequences of the disaster at the nuclear power plant in Fukushima.

In their totality, historical factors largely determine the continued stagnation in resolving the issue of the Kuril Islands. The demographics, geography, political institutions, and attitudes of the citizens of Japan and Russia all contribute to a tough negotiating position. Oil policy provides some incentive for both nations to resolve disputes and normalize relations. However, so far this has not been enough to break the impasse. Despite the possible change of leaders around the world, the main factors that have driven this dispute to a standstill are likely to remain unchanged.

Michael Bacalu is a member of the Council on Asian Affairs. He received a master's degree in international relations from Seoul University, South Korea, and a bachelor's degree in history and political science from Arcadia University. The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author as an individual and do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization with which he has ties.

The materials of InoSMI contain only assessments of foreign media and do not reflect the position of the editors of InoSMI.

Recently, Shinzo Abe announced that he would annex the disputed islands of the South Kuril chain to Japan. “I will solve the problem of the northern territories and conclude a peace treaty. As a politician, as a prime minister, I want to achieve this at all costs,” he promised his compatriots.

According to Japanese tradition, Shinzo Abe will have to do hara-kiri if he doesn't keep his word. It is quite possible that Vladimir Putin will help the Japanese prime minister live to a ripe old age and die a natural death. Photo by Alexander Vilf (Getty Images).

In my opinion, everything goes to the fact that the long-standing conflict will be settled. The time for establishing decent relations with Japan was chosen very well - for the empty hard-to-reach lands, which their former owners now and then look nostalgically, you can get a lot of material benefits from one of the most powerful economies in the world. And the lifting of sanctions as a condition for the transfer of the islands is far from the only and not the main concession that our Foreign Ministry is now seeking, I am sure.

So the quite expected surge of quasi-patriotism of our liberals, directed at the Russian president, should be prevented.

I have already had to analyze in detail the history of the islands of Tarabarov and Bolshoy Ussuriysky on the Amur, the loss of which Moscow snobs cannot come to terms with. The post also discussed the dispute with Norway over maritime territories, which was also settled.

I also touched upon the secret negotiations between the human rights activist Lev Ponomarev and the Japanese diplomat about the "northern territories", filmed on video and posted online. Generally speaking, one of this video it is enough for our caring citizens to bashfully swallow the return of the islands to Japan, if it takes place. But since concerned citizens will definitely not keep silent, we must understand the essence of the problem.

background

February 7, 1855 Shimodsky treatise on trade and borders. The now disputed islands of Iturup, Kunashir, Shikotan and the Habomai group of islands have been ceded to Japan (therefore, February 7 is annually celebrated in Japan as Northern Territories Day). The question of the status of Sakhalin remained unresolved.

May 7, 1875 Petersburg treaty. Japan transferred the rights to all 18 Kuril Islands in exchange for the entire Sakhalin.

August 23, 1905- Treaty of Portsmouth resultsRusso-Japanese War.Russia ceded the southern part of Sakhalin.

February 11, 1945 — Yalta conference. THE USSR, US and UK reached a written agreement on the entry of the Soviet Union into the war with Japan, subject to the return of South Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands to it after the end of the war.

February 2, 1946 on the basis of the Yalta agreements in the USSR Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk region was created - on the territory of the southern part of the island Sakhalin and Kuril Islands. January 2, 1947 she was merged with Sakhalin Oblast Khabarovsk Territory, which expanded to the borders of the modern Sakhalin Region.

Japan enters the Cold War

September 8, 1951 The Treaty of San Francisco was signed between the Allied Powers and Japan. Regarding the now disputed territories, it says the following: "Japan renounces all rights, titles and claims to the Kuril Islands and to that part of Sakhalin Island and the islands adjacent to it, sovereignty over which Japan acquired under the Portsmouth Treaty of September 5, 1905."

The USSR sent a delegation to San Francisco headed by Deputy Foreign Minister A. Gromyko. But not in order to sign a document, but to voice their position. The said clause of the contract was formulated as follows:"Japan recognizes the full sovereignty of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics over the southern part of Sakhalin Island with all the islands adjacent to it and the Kuril Islands and renounces all rights, titles and claims to these territories."

Of course, in our wording, the treaty is specific and more in line with the spirit and letter of the Yalta agreements. However, the Anglo-American version was adopted. The USSR did not sign it, Japan did.

Today, some historians believe that The USSR had to sign the San Francisco Peace Treaty in the form in which it was proposed by the Americans This would strengthen our negotiating position. “We should have signed a contract. I don’t know why we didn’t do this - perhaps because of vanity or pride, but above all, because Stalin overestimated his capabilities and the degree of his influence on the United States, ”N.S. wrote in his memoirs .Khrushchev. But soon, as we shall see later, he himself made a mistake.

From today's standpoint, the lack of a signature under the notorious treaty is sometimes considered almost a diplomatic failure. However, the international situation of that time was much more complicated and was not limited to the Far East. Perhaps, what seems to someone a loss, in those conditions became a necessary measure.

Japan and sanctions

It is sometimes erroneously believed that since we do not have a peace treaty with Japan, we are in a state of war. However, this is not at all the case.

December 12, 1956 The exchange of letters took place in Tokyo, marking the entry into force of the Joint Declaration. According to the document, the USSR agreed to "the transfer of the Habomai Islands and the Shikotan Islands to Japan, however, that the actual transfer of these islands to Japan will be made after the conclusion of a peace treaty between the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and Japan."

The parties came to this wording after several rounds of lengthy negotiations. Japan's initial proposal was simple: a return to Potsdam - that is, the transfer of all the Kuriles and South Sakhalin to it. Of course, such a proposal by the losing side of the war looked somewhat frivolous.

The USSR was not going to cede an inch, but unexpectedly for the Japanese, Habomai and Shikotan suddenly offered. This was a reserve position, approved by the Politburo, but announced prematurely - the head of the Soviet delegation, Ya.A. Malik, was acutely worried about N.S. On August 9, 1956, during a conversation with his counterpart in the garden of the Japanese embassy in London, the reserve position was announced. It was she who entered the text of the Joint Declaration.

It must be clarified that the influence of the United States on Japan at that time was enormous (however, as now). They closely monitored all her contacts with the USSR and, undoubtedly, were the third participant in the negotiations, although invisible.

At the end of August 1956, Washington threatened Tokyo that if, under a peace treaty with the USSR, Japan renounces its claims to Kunashir and Iturup, the United States will forever retain the occupied island of Okinawa and the entire Ryukyu archipelago. The note included a wording that clearly played on the national feelings of the Japanese: “The US government has come to the conclusion that the islands of Iturup and Kunashir (along with the islands of Habomai and Shikotan, which are part of Hokkaido) have always been part of Japan and should rightly be considered as belonging to Japan ". That is, the Yalta agreements were publicly disavowed.

The affiliation of the "northern territories" of Hokkaido, of course, is a lie - on all military and pre-war Japanese maps, the islands have always been part of the Kuril ridge and have never been designated separately. However, the idea was well received. It was on this geographical absurdity that entire generations of politicians in the Land of the Rising Sun made their careers.

The peace treaty has not yet been signed - in our relations we are guided by the Joint Declaration of 1956.

Issue price

I think that even in the first term of his presidency, Vladimir Putin decided to settle all disputed territorial issues with his neighbors. Including with Japan. In any case, back in 2004, Sergey Lavrov formulated the position of the Russian leadership: “We have always fulfilled and will continue to fulfill our obligations, especially ratified documents, but, of course, to the extent that our partners are ready to fulfill the same agreements . So far, as we know, we have not been able to reach an understanding of these volumes as we see it and as we saw it in 1956.

“Until the ownership of all four islands by Japan is clearly determined, a peace treaty will not be concluded,” responded the then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. The negotiation process has again reached an impasse.

However, this year we again remembered the peace treaty with Japan.

In May, at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, Vladimir Putin said that Russia was ready to negotiate with Japan on the disputed islands, and the solution should be a compromise. That is, none of the parties should feel like a loser. “Are you ready to negotiate? Yes, ready. But we were surprised to hear recently that Japan has joined some kind of sanctions - and here Japan, I don’t really understand - and is suspending the negotiation process on this topic. So we are ready, is Japan ready, I haven’t learned for myself, ”said the President of the Russian Federation.

It seems that the pain point is found correctly. And the negotiation process (I hope, this time in offices tightly closed from American ears) has been in full swing for at least six months. Otherwise, Shinzo Abe would not have made such promises.

If we fulfill the terms of the 1956 Joint Declaration and return the two islands to Japan, 2,100 people will have to be resettled. All of them live on Shikotan, only a frontier post is located on Habomai. Most likely, the problem of the presence of our armed forces on the islands is being discussed. However, for complete control over the region, the troops deployed on Sakhalin, Kunashir and Iturup are quite enough.

Another question is what reciprocal concessions we expect from Japan. It is clear that the sanctions should be lifted - this is not even discussed. Perhaps access to credits and technologies, expansion of participation in joint projects? Not excluded.

Be that as it may, Shinzo Abe faces a difficult choice. The conclusion of the long-awaited peace treaty with Russia, seasoned with "northern territories", would certainly have made him the politician of the century in his homeland. It will inevitably lead to tension in relations between Japan and the United States. I wonder what the Prime Minister would prefer.

And we will somehow survive the internal Russian tension that our liberals will inflate.

The Habomai group of islands is labeled "Other Islands" on this map. These are several white spots between Shikotan and Hokkaido.
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